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Griz Wont Get In The Dance

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  • Griz Wont Get In The Dance

    Wont surprise me in any way if they lose the BSC tournament and there is no way they are gonna get an at large bid.

  • #2
    I think a few things have to go right. I am not a fan of the 3 games in 3 days, especially with a bench that rotates only three guys on most nights, two in any regularity. I think teams with extended depth and efficient offenses have a better shot in this format.

    If I were to rank teams on their likelihood of winning:
    1. Montana (I think their route to the title game is the easiest and filled with mostly teams they matchup well with. The only one they don’t is PSU)
    2. Eastern Washington: I think they are the scariest team left. If Akoh doesn’t play, then this is Jacob Peatling’s tournament to dominate. He’s the most gifted post player in conference and teams have struggled defending him and Davison.
    3. Portland State: Honestly this is the team that is most suited to win 3 games in 3 days. They can get points from everywhere, are supremely conditioned. Peery’s teams can have clunkers but the diverse scoring of this group might insulate them from the type of bad legs nights.
    4. Northern Colorado: I think NAU showed the conference precisely how you beat UNC. Davis was marginal and has been the last couple of weeks. They absolutely need Davis to be more efficient than he has been lately. NAU stretched Northern Colorado out defensively and took advantage of their length on the wing.
    5. Weber State: Honestly I don’t know what WSU team is going to show up. The team that played EWU on Saturday would be scary. But their heft down low doesn’t translate well. They are foul prone. They haven’t gotten consistent scoring from their posts and it is a flip of the coin as to to whether John is going to score any given night.
    6. MSU: I think they depend too heavily on Frey and Hall to score. So much so that they grind down possessions because of how much they don’t use other offensive personnel. I don’t know Ricketts health, but if he is less than full strength, I think they are going to struggle.

    For Montana to win:
    1. Akoh/Dorsey. Akoh needs to play Friday night. That is the one matchup (PSU or WSU) where his presence would be an added bonus. They don’t need him to win, but he causes PSU problems defensively and clogs up the middle. I have been told there isn’t much concern for reinjury or further injury at this point, but it is more about collective leg weakness and fatigue. Having him back would be a big boost, even in limited minutes. Dorsey needs to find his legs. He hasn’t had them for a few weeks. DeCuire I think tried to limit his minutes against SSU because he sure hasn’t had the same bounce. He’s gotten beat up the past few weeks and hasn’t been much of an offensive threat since the Cat-Griz game.

    To be honest I have a hard time thinking the Griz win the whole tournament with a 7 player rotation. Other teams don’t have deep rosters either, but depending on Falls and Manuel as the primary bench guys is a bit scary. No matter they are going to need minutes out of Anderson/Kramer and if WSU wins we’ll see a bunch of Kramer if Akoh doesn’t return.

    2. Let Timmy Falls run. I think he’s been the most important player since Akoh went down. The difficulty with him is that his style doesn’t necesssarily match with Oguine or Rorie. He showed a giants PSU and SSU he can be the type of dynamic player, both offensively and defensively that can fill that role off the bench. The prospect of playing 3 games in 3 days puts an emphasis of your bench guys contributing big minutes in key situations. Falls would be a starter everywhere else in the league. I think if Akoh doesn’t play, then Falls becomes more important. IF PSU wins, I wouldn’t be surprised that Falls doesn’t start against PSU.

    3. Get some luck. Last year it was a grind for 3 games in 4 days. Catch a team on an off night. Right now, having Eastern, Northern Colorado and MSU on the other side of the bracket is a huge boost. I really didn’t want to face Frey and Hall for a third time in that second round. The advantage of facing WSU/PSU second is how PSU plays. That is a grind to play at a high rate for 40 minutes. Instead of having 42 hours of repair, it is just less than 24 hours likely. If PSU in particular is even a fraction slower, that is a boost to the Griz.

    I still think that the UM is the best team there, but they are dealing with health issues that have sapped the team of key depth. A limited bench, and a schedule that doesn’t help.

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    • #3
      And Poof! I'm better at this than you two. No way we beat Michigan.

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      • #4
        Nope.

        This is about as bad of a draw as we could have gotten in a land of bad draws. I laugh at the people who thought we were a 12-13 seed or if a win over Irvine would have secured that. We got absolutely no help from our conference and were too ill, too injured early on to battle teams like Creighton and Arizona. When you play 2 out of every three games to teams below 250 in the NET rankings, where do you think that ranking is going to put you?

        I felt like we might sneak into a 14 provided the tournaments played out in our favor. There isn't a team on the 13 or 14 line that you could make an argument that should be ranked lower than the UM. They at least got that part of the bracket right.

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